Verstappen’s Peril Amidst Echoes of Past in Spa Comeback

This year’s second sprint race at Spa has a distinct sense of familiarity, characterized by rainfall, uncertainty, and a Red Bull led race in the 2023 Formula 1 season.

Max Verstappen dominated the race, notwithstanding an early lead from Oscar Piastri of McLaren during the initial laps. Verstappen and the Red Bull team astutely chose not to pit stop at the end of the five formation laps on the damp circuit, unlike Piastri and his team.

If Verstappen had followed suit, he would have risked losing more time than the 1.5-second lag he experienced behind Piastri when he finally changed to the intermediate tyres on the second lap of the sprint. Even with this delay, he most likely would have regained the lead given his remarkable performance.

“We discussed the risks of pitting immediately, especially with all cars coming in at once,” Verstappen explained in the post-race press conference, “We decided to play it safe and complete at least one lap, hoping for a safety car on the first lap. There was no safety car, so I knew I’d be at a disadvantage since the full wet tyres are slower here than the inters.”

Piastri acknowledged the risks but his decision paid off as he led his first F1 race, contributing to an exceptional rookie year.

However, his lead was short-lived when Verstappen sped past him on the Kemmel straight after the restart. Verstappen’s Red Bull showcased remarkable speed that took the Australian by surprise. The episode hints at the challenges McLaren and other teams might face in the grand prix.

With Verstappen’s RB19’s aerodynamic efficacy, the powerful Honda engine, robust DRS setup and overall mechanical stability, his Spa win in 2022 could likely repeat itself, despite the looming threat of a gearbox change. The absence of any dry-running data from Spa this season makes it risky to predict otherwise.

Despite the confidence, Verstappen alluded to potential risks in the upcoming race. “The car was fast during the first race,” he stated, “I need to ensure there’s no damage to the car and once I’ve completed the first lap cleanly, we can progress.” Verstappen’s previous Spa races offer lessons about the risks of starting from behind, such as the 2016 and 2019 incidents with Ferrari drivers.

Assuming a dry race, potential damages at the La Source corner pose a significant threat to Verstappen’s chances of another dominating Spa performance. Yet, there are rumors of rain expected during the race, which could impact Verstappen’s strategy.

The lack of dry running this weekend leaves teams dependent on historical data and experiences from previous races to estimate tyre performance. Pirelli predicts negligible difference in tyre degradation between one or two pit stops. However, this could be a minor threat to Verstappen as Red Bull has been known to make miscalculations with its tyre strategies.

Verstappen will first need to surpass McLaren, which is believed to have a wet conditions setup, followed by Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz and pole-sitter Charles Leclerc. Additionally, another showdown with Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton awaits, making the race more thrilling.

The last hurdle for Verstappen might be his own teammate Sergio Perez, who starts from the front row after an impressive qualifying round.

In summary, Verstappen faces multiple challenges, from weather conditions, tyre strategies, rival competitors, and his own teammate. Yet, there’s a strong sense of familiarity to this narrative, suggesting another déjà vu in the making for Verstappen’s Spa victory.

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More about Max Verstappen’s Spa Race 2023

• 2023 F1 Sprint Race
• Oscar Piastri’s Racing Profile
• Max Verstappen’s Official Page
• Sergio Perez’s Racing Profile
• Overview of Gearbox in F1
• Track information about Spa
• Lewis Hamilton’s Official Page