Hungarian Grand Prix Preview: F1 Analysis

The exceptional performance of Max Verstappen this season can be attributed to four fundamental factors – his extraordinary driving prowess and a vehicle with unparalleled straight-line speed, an impressively effective DRS system, and superb cornering balance.

These factors collectively placed him in pole position once more at Silverstone, yet the unique characteristics of the Hungarian track – favoring low to medium speed turns and lacking a significant high-speed straight – pose a different challenge.

While the advances in vehicle technology have increased the speed compared to older times, the Hungarian track has the reputation of being a performance equalizer. Whether this will diminish Red Bull’s lead, however, remains uncertain.

During the previous race at Silverstone, McLaren was the nearest contender to Verstappen but fell short in the end. Verstappen’s tenth place qualification in Budapest last year, despite eventually winning, could give his rivals a reason to worry.

As we move towards the Hungarian Grand Prix, what can we anticipate?

WINNING PROSPECTS

Despite Red Bull’s notorious straight-line speed, it also possesses a superbly balanced chassis for cornering and over uneven surfaces. Thus, while one aspect of its advantage might be reduced, another could potentially be amplified.

At Silverstone, Red Bull outperformed all competitors in medium-speed turns, which are prevalent in Budapest. Coupled with a beneficial DRS zone, Verstappen remains a strong favorite at odds of 8/25.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB19

Photo by: Erik Junius

Last year, Mercedes secured a double podium in Hungary, and Lewis Hamilton has a 50 percent winning record on the track (8 out of 16), with a total of 11 podium finishes. A ninth win would be a record at any circuit.

Hamilton, driving a Mercedes showing recovery signs, including a third-place finish at Silverstone, is rated at 13/1 to win. His team-mate George Russell, who achieved pole position in Hungary last year, may offer appealing odds at 24/1.

PODIUM CONTENDERS

This season has seen podium appearances from six teams and eight of the 20 drivers, with McLaren’s Lando Norris the most recent second-place finisher at Silverstone.

Interestingly, the previous four races have seen second place achieved by different teams – McLaren (Norris) in Britain; Ferrari (Charles Leclerc) in Austria; Aston Martin (Fernando Alonso) in Canada; and Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton) in Spain.

Despite their success at Silverstone, the McLaren team may face a different situation in Hungary. The high temperatures, typically around 29 degrees, favor cars and drivers proficient in tire management.

Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Perez, who needs to regain his form, is one such driver. His odds for a podium finish are 81/100.

George Russell, Mercedes F1 W14, Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin AMR23, Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-23

Photo by: Steve Etherington / F1 Flow Images

Meanwhile, Fernando Alonso has historically performed well at the Hungaroring, despite the recent slump in Aston Martin’s performance. However, Ferrari has a less promising history in Hungary, with only one podium finish in the past three years.

POINT CONTENDERS

All teams have scored points, with Alpha Tauri in the last place having earned points only twice – both times by Yuki Tsunoda. Nyck de Vries and Williams’ Logan Sargeant are yet to score.

Red Bull reserve Daniel Ricciardo has replaced de Vries from this race. He would need to push the AlphaTauri car beyond its usual backmarker status, but he’s likely to give it a strong effort. His chances of finishing in the points are 2/1.

POSSIBLE PREDICAMENTS

The compact and winding nature of the Hungaroring can make the race start more risky, with over half the races there witnessing at least one opening lap retirement.

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL60, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB19, Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL60, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF-23, Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-23, the rest of the field at the start

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / F1 Flow Images

Despite this, the safety car has only been deployed in six races, and only once since 2017. As the forecast for Sunday is clear skies, the likelihood of rain-triggered safety car deployments is low.

If Verstappen clinches victory, it’s improbable he’ll pull away significantly from the field. Winning margins in Hungary are typically small, averaging eight seconds in the past decade, which means he could face close competition.

NOTE: Odds were accurate at the time of writing.

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More about Hungarian Grand Prix Preview

• Max Verstappen’s Performance
• Hungarian Grand Prix Information
• Mercedes Team Profile
• McLaren Team Profile
• Alpha Tauri Team Profile
• Historic F1 Statistics
• Red Bull Racing Team Profile